Big banks eye independent rate rises

Big banks eye political environment to gauge risks of independent rate rises, says analyst Scott Murdoch

From: The Australian September 08, 2010
THE big Australian banks are forecast to independently lift key mortgage rates, to take advantage of the current political environment.

An analysis by Credit Suisse has found the major banks could raise their rates by up to 20 basis points, outside of the official cycle with the Reserve Bank of Australia.

A move of that size would ease the current pressure from higher funding costs but also increase the banks net interest margins, a key barometer of profitability.


The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has been named as the first bank likely to move because it has the highest level of share of the Australian residential mortgage market.


The bank, which is Australia's largest by market capitalisation, has a 26 per cent home loan market share compared to Westpac’s 24.3 per cent, National Australia Bank’s 13.1 per cent and ANZ’s 12.9 per cent.

Credit Suisse analyst Jarrod Martin said it was increasingly likely the banks would move out of sync with the RBA, given the current political climate.

"The political risks are clearer," he said.


"With a minority federal government now being formed by Labor, the major banks can now better assess the political risks associated with undertaking an out of cycle mortgage rate increase.


"We believe it's a prospect given the apparent funding cost and net interest margin pressures currently affecting bank core earnings growth."


Mr Martin said an increase, of up to 20 basis points, would reflect the constant pressure on the banks earnings due to higher funding costs.


The major four banks have to raise more than $100 billion over the next year to fund their current and future mortgages.

"This should be viewed as a glass half empty issue," he said.


"While such a development would be a positive incremental development for bank earnings it should be seen as defensive in nature and highlights the core earnings pressure in the industry.


"It helps compensate for the number pressures on bank core earnings but it does not increase the sustainable earnings power of the sector."


Still, a price leader needs to step forward. In the past, Westpac and the NAB have taken the lead and raised outside of the RBA but have faced intense political criticism and scrutiny.


Westpac currently has the highest standard variable rate of 7.51 per cent, compared to ANZ's 7.41 per cent, CBA's 7.36 per cent and NAB's 7.24 per cent.


"A price leader needs to emerge," Mr Martin said.


"We see CBA as the most natural price leader that needs to emerge to allow industry-wide mortgage rate increases to be effected," he said.


The analysis found that if mortgage rates were hiked by 20 basis points, each of the banks would experience an increase in their net interest margin.


CBA's net interest margin would move from 2.04 per cent to 2.13 per cent while Westpac’s would lift from 2.27 to 2.37 per cent.


The impact at the banks with smaller mortgage books would be less significant. ANZ’s margin would rise from 2.42 per cent to 2.49 per cent and NAB from 2.25 per cent to 2.31 per cent.